The 2014 winter edition of the Energy Market Barometer looks at the position of nuclear energy in the French electrical power network as well as many other subjects such as the evolution of energy prices and the energy transition. The barometer is an opportunity for Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) to continue analysing this sector.
Grenoble Ecole de Management’s latest barometer focuses on three issues: (1) the future electricity mix in France and in the European Union, (2) the regulatory conditions in France for investments in energy technologies and (3) the evolution of energy prices (in particular the price of oil).
The key conclusions drawn from this barometer:
1 – Future electricity mix in France and the EU
Proposed legislation on the energy transition in France, as well as EU regulatory decisions, will affect the electricity mix. Below we present several key points based on answers given by expert participants:
– Less than a quarter of experts believe that by 2025, France will have achieved the goal of reducing its nuclear dependence to 50% of the electricity mix.
This point of view fits with the 2013 winter edition of the Barometer, which concluded that France would require approximately 30 years to reduce the nuclear sector’s market share from its current 76% down to 50%.
– The percentage of renewable energy (excepting hydroelectricity) in the French electricity mix is expected to quadruple from 5% to 18% by 2030. Joachim Schleich, a researcher at Grenoble Ecole de Management who coordinated the study, added: “Today, renewable energy production in France is well behind that of its neighbors. In Germany, current photovoltaic capacity is seven times greater than our capacity and wind energy is four times greater. And this is despite the fact that in France we have more wind and more sun!”
– Renewable energy sources (excepting hydroelectricity) should become the primary source for electricity in the EU by 2030.
2 – French regulatory framework for energy technology investments
– Around two-thirds of experts believe regulatory conditions in France to be particularly favorable to energy efficiency and renewable energy investments.
– Experts are divided on the question of current and future regulatory conditions for nuclear investments in France. 54% expect the regulatory conditions for nuclear to remain unchanged over the next five years.
3 – Evolution of market prices
– Electricity prices will remain stable over the next six months but should increase over the next five years.
– “The majority of our panel experts believe that oil and gas prices will continue to drop in the near future but that this is only a temporary decrease,” explained Anne-Lorène Vernay, a researcher at Grenoble Ecole de Management.
– Carbon taxes will slowly increase over the mid- and long-term.
